From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Hones Tricky Message as It Nears Boosting Rates
While investors have been hyper-focused on the timing of the Fed’s first rate increase since 2006—many are now looking to September and not this week’s Fed meeting—Fed officials have been trying to hone a tricky post-liftoff message about where rates are going in the longer-run.
Fed officials are haunted by many events of the past two decades. … Eager to avoid similar jolts, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, in her past two major addresses, emphasized she expects rate increases to be slow and gradual once they start.
• At 8:30 AM ET, the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 5.9, up from 3.1 last month (above zero is expansion).
• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.4%.
• At 10:00 AM, the June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 56, up from 54 last month. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
• Schedule for Week of June 14, 2015
Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $59.77 per barrel and Brent at $63.32 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $107, and Brent was at $113 – so prices are down 40%+ year-over-year.
Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.81 per gallon (down almost $0.90 per gallon from a year ago).
If you click on “show crude oil prices”, the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.
|Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com|